From Bayou to Big House: Bryce Underwood's Stunning Flip and the Future of NIL in College Football

Last week, Bryce Underwood, a 5-star quarterback and the nation’s top high school recruit, sent shockwaves through college football when he decided to change his commitment from LSU (where he committed in January 2024) to the University of Michigan. In doing so, the 2023 Gatorade Player of the Year confirmed that he would continue playing home games just 30 minutes from his hometown of Belleville, MI, becoming the Wolverine’s first 5-star quarterback since Ryan Mallet in 2007. While many experts predicted that Michigan would struggle to land high-profile recruits after losing numerous key staffers when Jim Harbaugh departed to the NFL, the Wolverines struck back by landing their second #1 recruit in the last 10 years (Rashan Gary, 2016). While Underwood staying home will rightly make headlines, the factors underlying the young QB’s decision to remain in Michigan reveal the evolving nature of student-athlete compensation and illuminate what future deals for top players may look like as NIL continues to develop.

An Unexpected Turn 

Underwood announced his commitment to LSU on January 6, 2024, just two days before the Wolverines took home the 2023 National Championship. Despite Underwood’s Michigan roots, the school—namely Harbaugh and quarterbacks coach Matt Weiss—did not put much effort into recruiting the young talent, fracturing the parties’ relationship at the time (which may be part of the reason why his Belleville coach was “shocked” to learn that the QB had flipped his commitment). However, as the 2024 season began, the Wolverines endured devastating QB struggles, leading Barstool Sports founder (and Michigan alum) Dave Portnoy to promise to pay $2–3 million annually in NIL compensation to finance a quarterback for the team. With Michigan ranking 129th nationally and dead last in the Big Ten in passing offense, the urgency to land an elite new QB in Ann Arbor only grew stronger. The Wolverines needed someone who could throw the ball, and fortunately for them, the nation’s top passer was right in their backyard. Only one thing stood between Michigan and a new star QB—his commitment to LSU.

Underwood was rumored to have signed a NIL deal with LSU’s collective to pay him nearly $1.5 million a year, a premium price that highlights ongoing shifts in student-athlete compensation. Previously, Underwood would not have been able to legally accept money from any school in exchange for his commitment to play. Now, Michigan would have to beat LSU’s generous offer if they wanted to induce Underwood to sign. While the Wolverines initially gave the young quarterback a reported 4-year, $10.5 million offer, he doubled down on his commitment to LSU as recently as last week, showing that Michigan would need to do more in order to sign him.

Michigan’s All-Out Recruitment Push

The Wolverines had no trouble pulling out the big guns in attempting to sway the five-star player. Tom Brady (a Michigan legend himself) personally reached out to advise Underwood, and the two had several conversations as the young talent tried to come to a decision about his playing future. The aforementioned Portnoy also connected with the Underwood family to emphasize how Michigan could help to build the young QB’s brand (which likely included Underwood’s new NIL deal with Barstool Sports that was announced yesterday).

Another notable (and controversial) Wolverine had ties to Underwood, too—after leaving Michigan last season, former staffer Connor Stallions joined Underwood’s Belleville High as an assistant coach for their state playoff run, working closely with the young QB. While the addition of Stallions did not help Belleville to replicate their previous playoff success (as they had won the previous two state titles with Underwood before losing this season), many have speculated that the infamous coach (who is still under NCAA investigation for alleged sign-stealing) may have played a role in Underwood’s decision to join the Wolverines. 

The Ellison Connection

But the most important factor was always going to be money. While Portnoy was quoted as promising $2–3M per season for a new QB, many speculated about the sustainability of one donor repeatedly giving a school millions of dollars every year with no guarantee of a return on investment. More donors and more financial flexibility would be needed to make Underwood’s NIL offer viable. Michigan’s final push came from an unlikely source—enter Larry Ellison, co-founder of Oracle and the world’s second-richest man, with a net worth of $235 billion. Despite limited ties to Michigan (Ellison attended the University of Illinois), Michigan’s ‘Champions Circle’ NIL Collective credited both him and his wife Jolin (who is a Michigan alumna and is “super passionate” about the school’s athletics program) with the financial backing for the deal. But what prompted Ellison to commit a reported $12 million to a high school quarterback, especially given his sparse connections to Michigan? While generous alumni donations are nothing new in college athletics, the answer may go deeper, reflecting broader motives by Ellison.

Ellison’s son David is the CEO and founder of Skydance Media, which recently merged with Paramount Pictures (where David will assume CEO responsibilities) after Larry purchased the company in conjunction with RedBird Capital. The elder Ellison is also an investor in his son’s company and helped him to found it. Notably, Paramount has a deal in place with CBS and the Big Ten to televise their football games on Paramount+, including 17 Big Ten games and the Big Ten Championship in 2024. It should also be noted that Paramount has no comparable deal in place with any other conference, including the SEC (where LSU is a member). The addition of the #1 recruit to the Big Ten ranks will almost certainly boost TV ratings, potentially allowing the elder Ellison to recoup some of the money he’s giving Underwood through the jump in viewership that the young QB will bring to his son’s company. While it may be unfair to speculate that Ellison is helping his wife’s alma mater to sign college talent in order to maximize his investment into his son’s newest venture with Paramount, the arrangement stands to be a huge benefit for all involved—Michigan’s massive fanbase will have reason to be excited about next season (and will drive ratings accordingly), while the Ellisons will rake in revenue via Paramount’s deal with the Big Ten. The situation appears to be a win-win for both the Ellison family and Michigan athletics.

NIL’s Ripple Effect on College Athletics

However, not everyone is sharing in the joy of Underwood’s new commitment. Four-star QB Connor Smith de-committed after Michigan began to pursue Underwood, signifying that other recruits (especially those who play the same position) will not take kindly to their school pursuing other talent so publicly. On the other hand, players like current Alabama commit Ty Haywood have expressed renewed interest in joining the Wolverines, showing that their (newfound) financial freedom may not be problematic to talented players who stand to benefit from an influx of private money entering college sports. 

As more donors begin to leverage lucrative NIL deals as investment opportunities, the implications for college sports are profound. Will other recruits also change their tune, de-committing from their previous school in favor of a more luxurious offer? Could alumni with ties to media rights (like Ellison) use NIL to boost their other business ventures? And if the #1 recruit is able to be swayed, are any schools’ standout players truly safe from universities with deep alumni connections and deeper pockets? 

Underwood’s recruitment shows how NIL is changing the college athletics landscape. If you’re a fan of Michigan, Underwood’s decision offers hope and the promise of a brighter future. For the rest of college athletics, the young QB’s deal raises questions about the sustainability—not to mention ethics—of this new era of college sports.